A mere 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him over missing a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source for the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. When the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club who have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – however currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition managed more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival the club have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner faced the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
